Forecasting what the environment is likely to be impacted is vital for farmers to prepare and guard against adverse effects
According to National Meteorological rainfall outlook report for the months of January and February, Uganda will experience a dry spell during this period. Coupled by reducing prices for oil products internationally, and the fact that Matooke matures very fast during dry seasons, there is unwavering hope that Matooke and other essential products shall reduce the cost of living that had shot to unmanageable levels since last year March.
UNMA JANUARY TO FEBRUARY 2023 RAINFALL OUTLOOK AND REVIEW OF RAINFALL PERFORMANCE FOR SEPTEMBER TO DECEMBER 2022 OVER UGANDA
SUMMARY
The outlook for January to February 2023 indicates that most parts of the country are likely to experience dry weather conditions. However, parts of South Western and Central Uganda are expected to receive occasional rainfall.
Temperatures are expected to be warmer than average over most parts of the
RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR JANUARY – FEBRUARY 2023 PERIOD
During the forecast period, Sunny and dry weather conditions are expected to prevail over most parts of the country that include the Northern, Eastern and Karamoja sub-region. However, a few parts of South Western extending to Central Uganda and Mount Elgon areas are likely to experience occasional rainfall conditions.
Plant image representing the environment
DRIVERS FOR JANUARY – FEBRUARY 2023 PERIOD
The systems likely to influence the January to February 2023 rainfall distribution include: –
The current negative phase of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the central Pacific Ocean is predicted to return to neutral condition by February
The neutral phase of Indian Ocean Dipole (1OD) index is expected to continue.
The influence from the northern hemisphere semi-permanent high pressure systems (Arabian and Azores).
The local and regional physical features (water bodies, vegetation and highlands) and their generated circulation
REVIEW OF SEPTEMBER TO DECEMBER 2022 SEASONAL RAINFALL PERFORMANCE
Review of rainfall performance for September 2022
Analysis of observed rainfall for the month of September, 2022 indicates that wetter conditions over most parts of the country. Generally, most areas of the country received above-normal rains apart from Eastern parts that experienced near-normal rains.
The highest amount of rainfall during the month was recorded at Gulu station with a total of 352.6mm. This was followed by Buginyanya in Bulambuli district.
Nakasongola district with amounts of 329.8mm, 265.2mm, and 259.4mm respectively. The lowest amount was experienced at Entebbe station in Wakiso district with 45.7mm and Kotido district with 48.5mm.
In terms of temporal rainfall distribution (number of days with rainfall activity), Gulu station and Buginyanya station in Bulambuli district experienced the highest number of rain days with an observation of 23 days in the month. This was followed by Bududa station with 22 days, Kawanda station in Wakiso district and Bulindi farm in Hoima district all with 20 days.
The highest maximum fall (highest amount recorded in a single day) was observed at Mubende station with an amount of 109.3mm on 6th September 2022. This was followed by Gulu station and Kasese station with amounts of 105.9mm and 95.8mm on 15th September and 6th September, 2022 respectively.
Review of rainfall performance for October, 2022
The analysis of observed rainfall for the month of October generally indicates that most parts of the country received near-normal (average) rainfall. However, some areas of Bukedi and Kigezi experienced below normal (suppressed). Refer to figures 4 below for further details.
The highest amount of rainfall during the month was recorded at Bulindi farm station in Hoima District with a total of 278.3mm. This was followed by Kyembogo station in Kabarole district, Buginyanya Station in Bulambuli District, Kawanda station in Wakiso District and Soroti station with amounts of about 272.9mm, 252.1mm, 250.7mm and 238.8mm respectively. The lowest amount was experienced at Kalongo S/C Station in Nakasongola District with rainfall amount of 22.2mm. Other stations with the least amounts of rainfall include; Kotido station in Kotido District and Nabiswera station in Nakasongoladistrict with 27.7mm and 40.9mm respectively during the month of October, 2022. Refer to figures 4 and 5 for further details.
In terms of temporal rainfall distribution (number of days with rainfall activity), Buginyanya station experienced the highest number of rainy days activity with an observation of 24 days in the month. This was followed by Kyembogo, Bududa and Kawanda stations with total rain days of 18, 16 and 16 days of rainfall respectively. The least number of rain days were reported in Ruhengyere Field station in Kiruhura district reporting 3 days, Matete S/C (Sembabu le district), Batiaba (Buliisa district) and Nabiswera (Nakasongola district) stations reported 4, 5, and 6 days of rainfall respectively during October, 2022.
The highest maximum fall (highest amount of rainfall recorded in a single day) was observed at Entebbe Station in Wakiso district with an amount of 91.4mm on 41h October, 2022.
Review of rainfall performance for November, 2022
Generally, the analysis of observed rainfall for November, 2022 indicates that most areas received near-normal (average) rainfall apart from Eastern areas extending to Northern parts of the country that experienced below-normal (suppressed) rainfall during the period. Refer to figure 6 for further details.
The highest amount of rainfall during the month was recorded at Kamenyamigo station in Lwengo district with a total of 374.7mm. This was followed by Entebbe Station in Wakiso district, Buginyanya station in Bulambuli district, Wadelai in Pakwach district and Bushenyi station in Bushenyi district with amounts of 373.4mm, 329.2mm, 313.4mm and 309.0mm respectively. The lowest amount of rainfall was recorded at the Kotido station with 1.2mm. Refer to figure 7 for further details.
In terms of temporal rainfall distribution (number of days with rainfall activity), Karengere Station in Kabale district recorded the highest number of rain days totalling 25 days in the month. This was followed by Mubende and Kyembogo in Kabarole district with 23 days each while Budduda Station and Kamenyamigo in Lwengo district recorded 22 days and 20 days of rainfall respectively.
The highest maximum fall (highest amount recorded in a single day) was observed at Entebbe station in Wakiso district with an amount of 90.5mm on 12th November 2022, Wadelai and Masindi with mounts of 87.8mm and 73.9mm on 15th November respectively.
Rainfall performance for December 2022
A review of observed rainfall for the month of December, 2022 generally indicates wetter conditions were experienced over much of the country. Above-normal (above average) rainfall was received in most parts of the country apart from northern Uganda which received near-normal (average) rainfall. Refer to figure 8 for further details.
The highest amount of rainfall during the month was recorded at Kamenyamigo station in Lwengo district with a total of 319.9mm. This was followed by Entebbe Water Resource Department Station in Wakiso district, Bushenyi station, Kagulu S/c in Buyende district and Jinja Station with amounts of 309.9mm, 282.4mm, 266.9mm and 237.3mm respectively. The lowest amount was experienced at Kotido station with a rainfall amount of 8.9mm. Refer to figure 9 for further def\ .
Rainfall performance for September to December (SOND), 2022 season A review of rainfall during the September to December (SOND), 2022 season indicates that Near-normal (average) to above-Normal (above average) rainfall conditions were experienced over most parts of the co
The highest seasonal rainfall amount of SOND, 2022 season was recorded at Buginyanya weather station in Bulambuli district with a rainfall amount of 1051.4mm. This was followed by Kamenyamigo station in Lwengo district and Bushenyi station with rainfall amounts of 1046.2mm and 950.0mm respectively.
The lowest amount of seasonal rainfall was observed at Kotido station with 85.3mm and Serere station with 393.8mm. The highest maximum fall (highest amount recorded in a single day) over the SOND 2022 rainfall season was recorded at Mubende station with an amount of 109.3mm on 5th September, 2022. This was followed by Gulu station and Kasese station with amounts of 105.9mm and 95.8mm on 1sth September and 5th September, 2022 respectively.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS EXPECTED DURING JANUARY TO FEBRUARY, 2023
Fog and Hazy conditions are expected to be frequent during the forecast period
There is a likelihood of increased incidences of respiratory and eye diseases as a result of dusty and windy conditions
Reduction in animal pastures is expected as a result of drier conditions
The expected dry conditions may impact negatively the water resources leading to a reduction in water levels
Human-wildlife conflicts may escalate during the season as wildlife animals migrate in search of water and pasture
ADVISORIES
Motorists are advised to drive with caution whenever fog and hazy conditions occur
Increase surveillance to report any disease incidences to responsible authorities for immediate
Health education, awareness campaigns and health inspections should continue in the period in review
Monitor and report any emergence of crop pests, animal parasites and plant diseases to responsible authorities.
Health units are encouraged to stock medicines for anticipated disease incidents.
Communities are advised to practice good sanitation and personal hygiene to prevent disease outbreaks.
Communities are encouraged to avoid bush burning to preserve ecosystems damage.
Communities are advised to practice rotational grazing of livestock
Farming communities should carry out land preparation in anticipation of the first seasonal rains.
General public is encouraged to manage water resources to minimize water shortage.
Farming communities are advised to practice good post-harvest handling practices such as using tarpaulin facilities to avoid compromising the quality when drying
Farmers are encouraged to avoid wasteful consumption of food and immediate sale of harvests for food
Urban authorities are advised to desilt drainage systems and carry out road maintenance.
NB: This outlook should be used together with the 6–hour, 24-hour, 10–day, special forecasts and regular updates/advisories issued by the Authority.
